With all of the talk about the old guys (Larkin, Concepcion, Renteria…all shortstops—interesting) this week, I wanted to shine some light on some good news that also came out. We’ve known for a while that the Reds have an excellent farm system. They have been bringing up knock-out talent for the past few years (see Votto, J; Bruce, J; Stubbs, D; Cueto, J; etc), and they just keep them coming.
Baseball America released their annual report of the Reds’ top 10 prospects this week, and there were some interesting changes from last year . I’ve provided brief summaries and commentary on each of them (in order of appearance) in the hopes that we can get some positive discussion going about the future.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Age at start of 2011 Season: 23
MiLB Experience: 95.2 IP
MLB Experience: 13.1
Blocked by: Crowded rotation, lack of LHP bullpen arms
Prognosis: Chapman was the most electrifying signing of the 2009-2010 offseason. His 105.1 MPH fastball broke Zumaya’s record for the fastest pitch ever recorded. He projected as a starter when he first came to the organization. Why would the Reds squander an arm like this on middle relief? Necessity is one thing, but I’m not sure that that is the current situation. Sure, the best LHP bullpen arms going into Spring Training are Bray and D-Train, but can’t they find ANYBODY else on the FA market? True, Chapman could close if Cordero is shipped off (along with some cash) to a team in desperate need of a closer at some point early in the season, but that’s just an if at this point. I truly hope they at least let him compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training just to see if he is ready. If they don’t, I think it’s a colossal waste of talent.
Billy Hamilton, SS/2B
Age at start of 2011 Season: 20
MiLB Experience: 2009 Gulf Coast League – 180 PA; 2010 Billings – 316 PAs
MLB Experience: N/A
Blocked by: Brandon Phillips
Prognosis: I’m excited about this guy. In Billings, he put together a slash line of .318/.383/.456 with 48 SBs, 61 runs scored, 13 2Bs, and 10 3Bs. In other words, he gets on base, and he’s fast. The kid has a slick glove, to boot. With all the Uggla/Phillips comparisons and the worry about Phillips becoming too rich for the Reds’ pocket book, I’m not concerned. I think Hamilton will come up just in time to replace Phillips and provide a long-term leadoff solution.
Devin Mesoraco, C
Age at start of 2011 Season: 22
MiLB Experience: 1297 PA across all levels
MLB Experience: N/A
Blocked by: Rymon Hernanigan
Prognosis: Mesoraco forms the senior half of the Reds’ studly minor league catching tandem. Although he appeared to be a bit of a bust through 2009, he really came alive in 2010, posting a .302/.377/.587 slash line with 26 HR, 75 RBI, and 71 R in 451 PA across three levels. He also threw out 41% of base stealers. I can picture a trade of one of the major league backstops (probably Dog) sometime early in the season if Mesoraco shows he can consistently hit at the AAA level.
Yonder Alonso, 1B
Age at start of 2011 Season: 23
MiLB Experience: 931 PA across all levels
MLB Experience: 29 PA
Blocked by: Mr. MVP
Prognosis: The Reds have a lot of interesting problems with their young players. Most of them revolve around having too many players. I like Yonder, and I like what he can do with a bat. Unfortunately, he doesn’t play very good defense at 1B, and he’s painfully slow in the outfield. I think he probably projects as a Billy Butler-esque player. He will smack the ball all over, but he’s best suited to a 1B/DH role in the long-term. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make him a particularly valuable trade chip, and it doesn’t give him much of a role on the Reds. If Votto gets injured (Nuxy forbid) this season, I could see Yonder getting some playing time on the team, but I think it’s more likely he gets traded to a team in need of a left-handed bat.
Yorman Rodriguez, OF
Age at start of 2011 Season: 18
MiLB Experience: 472 PA in Rookie League
MLB Experience: N/A
Blocked by: Bruce/Stubbs
Prognosis: It’s hard to project the long-term value of a player so young, but Yorman appears to have some great talent. Last season, in Billings, Y-Rod hit .339/.361/.456 with 39 RBI and 12 SB in 184 PA. Keep in mind that this kid was 17 at the time. That means that he wasn’t even alive (or conceived, for that matter) when the Reds swept the A’s in 1990. He was just 7 when Al Leiter pitched that fateful game in ’99. I’m looking forward to see what he does this year against some (possibly) more advanced pitching.
Yasmani Grandal, C
Age at start of 2011 Season: 22
MiLB Experience: 33 PA in Rookie League
MLB Experience: N/A
Blocked by: Hernanigan and Mesoraco
Prognosis: According to his contract, Grandal has to be on the active roster by 2013. Given the talent that he appears to have, I don’t have a problem with this. Although it seems like a waste of talent, I think it would be incredible to have a tandem of Grandal/Mesoraco emerge in the next couple years. Grandal hit .401 with 15 HR, 60 RBI, and a .527 OBP in 2010 in college ball. .527 OBP. I hope his plate discipline continues as he progresses through the system. Like Y-Rod, this will be an exciting kid to watch develop this year.
Juan Francisco, 3B/OF
Age at start of 2011 Season: 23
MiLB Experience: 2,221 PA across 4 years at all levels
MLB Experience: 84 PA in 09-10
Blocked by: Rolen?
Prognosis: The question mark after Rolen’s name was just me being nice. Look, Francisco waves a big stick, and he demonstrated that clearly in the Dominican Winter League by putting up great numbers (.322/.380/.559 8 HR, 30 RBI, 29 R in just 163 PA) and winning the MVP. Unfortunately, the thing blocking Francisco from making the transition to 3B or LF is his glove. Here are a couple lines to look at:
2791 PA: .292/.354/.455 76 HR 391 RBI .902 Fld%
2221 PA: .282/.313/.494 96 HR 366 RBI .914 Fld%
Who do you think they are? E5E5 on top, 1Francisco on the bottom. Essentially, he’s a harder-hitting, left-handed Encarnacion. I’d love to see him pick up his defense, but I’m not sure he’ll ever get there.
Zack Cozart, SS
Age at start of 2011 Season: 25
MiLB Experience: 1816 PA across 3 levels
MLB Experience: N/A
Blocked by: Janish/Renteria?
Prognosis: Cozart looks pretty good—essentially a harder-hitting Janish. He has about the same range and defensive ability as Janish, but he hits more home runs. I wouldn’t have minded seeing him play backup to Janish this year, but I guess Walt wanted more veteran experience for middle infield support. I’m not sure what to think about Renteria, and this paragraph is supposed to be about Cozart, but the Renteria signing was just reported, so…that’s that.
Todd Frazier, 3B/OF
Age at start of 2011 Season: 25
MiLB Experience: 1858 PA across all levels
MLB Experience: N/A
Blocked by: Rolen
Prognosis: Last year’s top-rated Reds prospect has dropped to the #9 position this year according to Baseball America. This could be due to the signing of some stellar players like Chapman and Grandal, or the 2010 talent displays from emerging talents like Y-Rod, Mesoraco, and Hamilton, but it could also have something to do with Frazier’s plate discipline. In 2009, he put together .292/.351/.481 with 16 HR, 77 RBI, 48 BB and 79 K across 2 levels. In 2010, he only managed to hit .258/.333/.448 with 17 HR, 66 RBI, 45 BB, and 127 K. Going from 1.65 BB/K to 2.82 tends to be a problem. Maybe he turns things around in 2011 and rediscovers his patience, but if he doesn’t, he’s going to have problems getting on base at the MLB level.
Kyle Lotzkar, RHP
Age at start of 2011 Season: 21
MiLB Experience: 111 IP in Rookie and A ball
MLB Experience: N/A
Blocked by: N/A
Prognosis: He hasn’t played above A-ball, so this will be another rough projection of what this kid will do. However, he put together some great numbers in 2010. In 44.1 IP (10 starts), he went 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 30:7 K:BB ratio, and 12.18 K/9. Baseball America gives him the honors of best curveball and best control in the Reds system, so let’s see how he uses and develops those tools through other levels this season. It’s good to see the Reds system so stocked with pitching talent at all levels for once.